Results of the January 2020 Sassda Short Track Survey

The Sassda Short Track survey had 51 respondents in January. This survey uses the same questions as those used in the monthly International Stainless Steel Forum’s (ISSF) Short Track Report. However, the ISSF survey is only of stainless steel primary producers and thus the results are not directly comparable but are used to give context.

For Sassda respondents, the results of the first question were:


24% of Sassda respondents had a positive response to the current order situation, which is a decrease, when compared to November (34%) and worse than a year ago (28%). The weighted average (2.04) is worse than November and worse than a year ago (2.19).

For ISSF Flat Products, the results were:


For ISSF flat product producers, 50% of respondents had a positive response to their orders levels, which is the lower than a year ago (57%). The weighted average is higher (2.35) compared to November 2018 (2.45).

For ISSF Long Products, the results were:


For ISSF long product producers, 44% of respondents had a positive response to their order levels which is the same as last month (44%) and worse than a year ago (69%). The weighted average (2.33) which is lower than November (2.39) and lower than a year ago (2.76).

For Sassda respondents, the results of the second question were:


18% of Sassda respondents thought the current business situation was positive, which is worse than November (30%) and worse than a year ago (22%). The weighted average is higher (1.92) compared to November (2.96) and is worse than January last year which was (2.18).

For ISSF Flat Products, the results were:

The percent of respondents who felt that the current business situation was sufficient or good stood at 45% for December 2019, which is lower as the previous month (50%) and higher than a year ago (43%).For ISSF Long Products, the results were:

 

December was the lower than November with 19% positive response. This was worse than the same month last year (37%). The weighted average of 2.02 which is the lower than the previous month (2.12) and lower than a year ago (2.35).

For Sassda respondents, the results of the third question were:

10% of respondents thought things would get better which is the worse than the previous month (14%). However, 8% thought things would get worse.

The above data can be converted to the Sassda Expectations Index, where the index is calculated as 0.5 x % unchanged + % better. Above 50 would predict expansion in the next three months.


This month has shown an increase in expectations and the figure is at the 50.8% points, indicating an increase in market expectations.

For ISSF Flat products. The results were:


In December 2019 5% of the respondents felt things would get better with 15% expecting things to get worse. The weighted average (2.35) is higher than November 2018 (2.08).

For ISSF Long Products, the results were:

0% of ISSF long product respondents felt that business would get better in the next three months, with 25% thinking it would get worse. The weighted average of 2.15 which is the same as last month (2.15) and lower than a year ago (2.32).

The comments received from Sassda members were:13% of ISSF long product respondents felt that business would get better in the next three months, with 13% thinking it would get worse. The weighted average of 2.55 which is worse than as last month (2.15) and higher than a year ago (2.33).

The comments received from Sassda members were:

  • The answers provided are purely representative of the respondent’s current status and future forecast;
  • Figures released by Statistics SA shows that the economy has contracted by 0.6% quarter on quarter of 2019.  South Africa’s trajectory, going forward seems to be very volatile.  The negative worrying going forward;
  • Influx of Chinese imports and bakkie brigades have killed our 35 year old business.

BER Press Release 9th December 2019

Forecast summary

After a torrid 2019 for the SA economy with minimal real GDP growth, 2020 was expected to start on shaky ground. This was compounded by the return of load shedding in early January. While it is not possible to forecast the frequency and severity of load shedding, we assume that this will remain an important growth constraint for some time. Therefore, real GDP growth is expected to post only a slight improvement in 2020. Based on our (downwardly) revised growth forecast through next year, per capita GDP is set for a seventh consecutive annual decline in 2021.

Real annual % change* 2019 2020 2021
Final household consumption expenditure 1.2 1.0 1.2
Gross fixed capital formation -0.2 -0.4 1.3
Gross domestic expenditure 1.3 0.8 1.2
Exports of goods and services -2.0 1.9 2.0
Imports of goods and services 1.5 2.4 1.9
Gross domestic product 0.3 0.6 1.2
Other variables
Prime overdraft rate (end of period, %) 10.00 9.75 9.75
Consumer price inflation (%) 4.1 4.6 4.6
R/US dollar (Q4 average) 14.70 15.25 15.38