Market Intelligence

35 Years Ago

ECONOMIC – CAPEX

GENERAL BUSINESS ACITIVITY

Output in all sectors of the Stainless Steel Industry continued at a high level in the first quarter of 1981.  Many fabricators have order books that extend between 6 and 9 months, which is causing some irritation to clients who are eager to satisfy their plant requirements sooner.

Despite the bullish outlook for the next six months there are warning signs that by the third and fourth quarters certain sectors of the stainless steel industry will be with less work.  In particular, this would appear to be the case for 3mm plate and heavier.  This would reflect the reducing activity in the mineral processing markets.  Meanwhile the lighter end of the market, which serves the food processing, beverage and catering industries as well as the building and consumer products markets show every sign of growth throughout 1981.

market intelligence

HEAVY PLATE DEMAND (3mm and over)

Conclusions

  1. Overall 3mm plate demand is forecasted to show a drop of 9,5% in 1981 compared with 1980 before recovering in 1982 to levels comparable with 1980.
  2. Demand is likely to fluctuate about the average on a month to month basis much more for heavy plate than for other stainless steels.
  3. Since the forecast has been made the Gold price has dropped below most economists estimates, and that the effect of this would be to make the forecasts too optimistic.

For readers interest, the comparison of the carbon steel market (plate) is shown in the graph and it is largely similar in its cycling nature to stainless steel demand.

LIGHT GRADE DEMAND (0,5 – 3,0mm sheet)

Conclusionssandvik

  1. Demand in 1981 is forecasted to show a growth of over 10% by tonnage over 1980. It is important to note however, that the month on month growth during 1980 was exceptionally high, especially in the 0,5 – 1,25 mm sheet market, and that the demand in 1981 is expected to be similar to the levels prevailing in the last quarter of 1980.
  2. Unlike plate, the sheet market is less liable to severe fluctuations.

SASSDA ACTIVITY

The above comments are broad-brush and it is SASSDA’S intention to investigate certain segments, i.e. the food processing, food catering and building industry segments in depth to be reported on in detail to SASSDA members as they indicate.  SASSDA already has more detailed information on the heavy and light gauge sectors available to members.