Navigating uncertain times: opportunities and growth in the year ahead
Welcome to our late Autumn edition. We are certain there will be enough content to make for an enjoyable read on a cold evening.
We still live and operate in uncertain times at a global level. Major elections are taking place in the Americas and Europe that might not change the global political profile much. However, they might, and most likely will, impact our industry and the South African economy.
Military activities continue in the Middle East and Eastern Europe with no real solutions in sight. This has created changes in the global way of doing things, such as shipping volumes diverting from the Suez Canal, to around the southern tip of Africa. The picture might not be too rosy, but there remain subtle opportunities for the country and local industry.
The European Union is also experiencing industrial difficulties with continuing strikes limiting the availability of cold-rolled material in Europe. While the safeguarding regulations have been extended to 2026, the caps limiting exports to Europe have been adjusted. Reports from the East indicate rising nickel prices but with a marked degree of volatility.
Uncertain times
In South Africa, we have just completed a successful and peaceful national election with the promise of political stability and accelerated economic growth. It is accepted that the major structural overhaul of the many institutions in dire need of reform cannot happen overnight. However, a positive attitude, combined with small immediate successes, can create trust among investors and stakeholders.
The industry is also facing a level of uncertainty with the announcement of the retirement of Trade & Industry Minister Ebrahim Patel with no real successor being earmarked at the time of writing this. It also appears that the stoppage of load shedding was not an election gimmick and can be sustained. It is worth noting our gratitude towards the industry and our members who invested in renewable systems, removing load from the national grid. Once again, an example of an adaptable industry with a resilient
Consumption figures
In terms of local production, stainless steel was moving laterally during the first quarter but showed good growth in April, which is also reflected in the export figures.
Imports did not change much from their historic values, but local consumption edged slightly down in April.
However, local consumption is the tonnage that gets locally converted by fabricators who would still have been exposed to load-shedding in this period. As a result, we believe that we will see a definite increase in this figure in the second quarter of 2024. Substantiating this opinion is the 5% growth in national manufacturing during the same period.
Uncertain times, but with a good promise that things can get better this year and that we will soon see the local consumption tonnage returning to the prepandemic levels of 156 000 tonnes. This is important, as it would mean job creation and growth.
Please enjoy this effort by our editorial team and remember to enter the Sassda Awards that will take place later this year. You can read more about this in the magazine, but we are excited about the opportunity again to honour the companies and individuals that make our industry great
Michel Basson
Sassda Executive Director